The Law of Large Numbers

How to Increase your Chance of Success

Something just came to my mind now. That even though you're active and intact. Even though nothing is wrong with your creativity and you're firing from all barrels. You might need to create up to 10 products before you hit the jackpot. I might need to write up to 10 articles (or more)on my substack before I get one good one. For some, it's a 20. For some, it's 30. For others it's a 50 and for some it's the whole product they've created all their lives.

That sweet one product that blows out of proportion and earns you your big title. You don't know when you will ever have to create it. That is why we say don't stop creating. We all don't know.

You've not created enough, friends. Not even near it. And that's the same thing I tell myself every day. How many videos have you created? How many articles have you written? How many designs have you made? How many songs have you written? You are not in control of what makes people blow. The only thing in your control is CREATING.

You don't have control over the platform, over. the people that will engage and share with others. Over the algorithm. Over time and chance. But you have control over your diligence and consistency.

I can't promise anyone anything. I can't even promise myself. What I'm doing currently might not be what will give me the medal. I might have to pivot and stuff. The medal is in the doing. There is a miracle on the road. Not only your contemplations and doubts.

The tenacious hits the gold. Quitters get nothing. I know about your tears and blisters. I know about your hurt. I know about your disappointment. But still, quitters get nothing.

Is it fair? I can't say. That's the system of the world. No complaints. Sometimes quitters are not the lazy guys we think they are. Some have seen unprecedented Shege. But it is what it is.This thought aligns with a few laws you might want to check.

1. The Law of Large Numbers in Creativity

The idea that repeated attempts increase the likelihood of success is reflected in the Law of Large Numbers, which suggests that the more trials you undertake, the higher the probability of achieving a favorable outcome. This applies to creative work—more iterations lead to refinement and eventual success.

2. The 10,000-Hour Rule

Malcolm Gladwell popularized the 10,000-hour rule, based on research by psychologist Anders Ericsson, which suggests that mastery in any field requires extensive practice. While this is not an absolute rule, it highlights the importance of sustained effort and repeated attempts.

3. Divergent vs. Convergent Thinking

Psychological research on creativity distinguishes between divergent thinking (generating multiple ideas) and convergent thinking (refining and selecting the best ideas). Studies indicate that successful creators often produce a large volume of work before identifying their best pieces.

I am sure this helps. Move out and create magic. Breakthrough from within.

© Abiola Iyiola, 2025

Image: Raka Miftah